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So, I am tooling around town today with Ed, a co-worker, having a candid political discussion. The whole topic was about whom the Presidential nominees for both parties would be a why. Ed was insistent on the fact that Hillary would be the nominee for the Democratic Party and that Rudy would be the nominee for the Republican party.

I disagreed. Then Ed interrupts. And pontificates on why he is correct. Ed, I love you brother. You just fail to see how history and politics are so intertwined. Hillary is the “defacto” choice and probably should be the nominee, but will not get it. No way… no how. Rudy.. same conclusion.
Ed went on to pick the VP candidates for the respective nominees of choice; Mr. Obama to run with Mrs. Clinton and Steve Forbes to run with Rudy. Bold predictions. Not if history has anything to say about it. The Democratic Party almost never has the frontrunner become the nominee. To my recollection only in 2000 with Al gore being the frontrunner, has the Democratic Party actually selected the frontrunner as its nominee. Let’s look at the recent history:

1972 – Ed Muskie was the clear front runner before George McGovern got the nomination
1976 – Robert Byrd was the frontrunner but it was the no-name southern boy, Jimmy carter that got the nomination.
1980 – Carter was the incumbent and faced Reagan (only Jerry Brown seriously challenged him)
1984 – Gary Hart was the frontrunner, but Walter Mondale got the nomination
1988 – Gary Hart was the frontrunner then dropped out and then Dick Gephardt became the frontrunner, ran out of money, dropped out, and Michael Dukakis got the nomination.
1992 – Tom Harkin and Paul Tsongas were frontrunners as the Gennifer Flowers scandal seemed to doom all hopes of Bill Clinton’s presidential aspirations, yet the “Comeback Kid” got the nomination and won the presidency despite being considered to inexperience for the job.
1996 – Bill Clinton was the incumbent and rand virtually unopposed for the democratic nomination
2000 – Al Gore and Bill Bradley… Al had the edge as being the incumbent vice president and got the nomination
2004 – Howard Dean the frontrunner but John Kerry got the nomination.
Hillary and John Edwards are clearly the frontrunners. History shows that neither will likely get the nomination.

The Republican Party has a much better history of nominating its frontrunners as the party’s nominee. Let’s look at the history:

1972 – Nixon was the incumbent and had no serious competition
1976 – Ford, the incumbent president narrowly beat Ronald Reagan out for the party’s nomination
1980 – Ronald Reagan was the frontrunner and got the nomination
1984 – Reagan was the incumbent and had no serious competition
1988 – George H. W. Bush was the incumbent VP and frontrunner and got the nomination.
1992 – George H. W. Bush was the incumbent President and faced little serious completion for the party’s re-nomination.
1996 – Bob Dole was the frontrunner and got the nomination
2000 – George W. Bush was the frontrunner. Only John McCain and Elizabeth Dole showed any serious signs of challenging him. W. won the nomination and Presidency.
2004 – George W. Bush was the incumbent and easily got the nomination.

Rudy seems to be the frontrunner in this campaign. We’ll see what happens.